Earthquakes have been connected to influxes of cosmic radiation from outer space.Scientists found a remarkable link between worldwide seismic activity—earthquakes—and Earth’s surface cosmic radiation intensity. They suggest earthquake prediction using this correlation.
Earthquakes cause massive human and economic losses. Predicting these events in time and place could reduce the fallout.
The Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN) in Cracow initiated the CREDO project in 2016 to investigate if cosmic radiation variations cause earthquakes.
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Initial cosmic radiation studies yielded a surprise.
Statistical research showed that the two events are connected in unexpected ways.
International, virtual cosmic ray observatory CREDO is open to everybody. It handles data from many detectors, including smartphone CMOS sensors turned into cosmic ray detectors by a simple app.
CREDO tracks global changes in secondary cosmic radiation reaching Earth’s surface. This radiation comes from the stratosphere, specifically the Regener-Pfotzer maximum. Primary cosmic radiation particles hit with atmospheric gas molecules, creating secondary particle cascades.
Dr. Piotr Homola (IFJ PAN and AstroCeNT CAMK PAN), CREDO coordinator and first author of the research article in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, says, “At first glance, the idea that there is a link between earthquakes and cosmic radiation, in its primary form reaching us mainly from the Sun and deep space, may seem strange. But its physical basis are rational.”
He underlines that Earth’s magnetic field, caused by eddy currents in its liquid core, modifies primary cosmic radiation’s charged particle track.
Thus, large earthquakes caused by dynamo flow disturbances would change the magnetic field, affecting primary cosmic radiation. These modifications would affect ground-based detectors’ secondary cosmic ray particle counts.
Studying earthquake/cosmic radiation
CREDO physicists examined cosmic ray intensity data from the Neutron Monitor Database project (half-century data) and the Pierre Auger Observatory (2005 data) to test this idea. Since they’re on both sides of the equator and use different detection methods, the observatories are balanced.
Scientists found a remarkable link between worldwide seismic activity—earthquakes—and Earth’s surface cosmic radiation intensity. They suggest earthquake prediction using this correlation. Earthquakes cause massive human and economic losses. Predicting these events in time and place could reduce the fallout.
The Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN) in Cracow initiated the CREDO project in 2016 to investigate if cosmic radiation variations cause earthquakes.
International, virtual cosmic ray observatory CREDO is open to everybody. It handles data from many detectors, including smartphone CMOS sensors turned into cosmic ray detectors by a simple app.
CREDO tracks global changes in secondary cosmic radiation reaching Earth’s surface. This radiation comes from the stratosphere, specifically the Regener-Pfotzer maximum.
The international radiation particles hit atmospheric gas molecules, creating secondary particle cascades.
CREDO coordinator Dr. Piotr Homola (IFJ PAN and AstroCeNT CAMK PAN) explains:
“At first, the idea that earthquakes and cosmic radiation, mainly from the sun and deep space, are linked may seem strange. But its physical basis is rational.”
He underlines that Earth’s magnetic field, caused by eddy currents in its liquid core, modifies primary cosmic radiation’s charged particle track.
Thus, large earthquakes caused by dynamo flow disturbances would change the magnetic field, affecting primary cosmic radiation. These modifications would affect ground-based detectors’ secondary cosmic ray particle counts.
Studying earthquake/cosmic radiation
CREDO physicists examined cosmic ray intensity data from the Neutron Monitor Database project (half-century data) and the Pierre Auger Observatory (2005 data) to test this idea. Since they’re on both sides of the equator and use different detection methods, the observatories are balanced.
Scientists analyzed solar activity data from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. USGS seismic activity data was crucial.
Statistical methods showed a link between secondary cosmic radiation intensity and the collective magnitude of all earthquakes of 4 or more on the Richter scale.
This correlation only appears when cosmic ray data is advanced 15 days relative to seismic data. This discovery boosts earthquake prediction hopes.
Outstanding results
Predicting these seismic events’ locations remains difficult. Global seismic activity reveals the cosmic ray intensity-earthquake association. Cosmic ray intensity fluctuations may indicate a global event.
Dr. Homola says, “In the scientific world, a discovery can be said to have been made when the statistical confidence level of the corroborating data reaches five sigma, or standard deviations.”
Homola adds, “For the observed correlation, we obtained more than six sigma, which means a chance of less than one in a billion that the correlation is due to chance. Thus, our statistical evidence supports the discovery of a real phenomenon. Is it the one we expected?
More cosmic radiation and earthquake puzzles
Mystery continues. The correlation’s large-scale cycles and global nature are unexpected.
This cyclical oscillation, peaking every 10–11 years like the solar activity cycle, didn’t match the sun’s highest activity, confusing astronomers. Other cosmic rays and seismic cycles add to the mystery. Seismic activity and secondary cosmic radiation change with the Earth’s stellar day, which is 24 hours minus 236 seconds.
Could this mean that cosmic-seismic correlations are influenced by something outside our solar system that can cause radiation and seismic effects? Which scientific phenomenon could explain these correlations?
Dark matter?
Scientists are examining non-conventional theories because there are few. Earth may pass through a dark matter stream modified by the Sun and other big solar system planets.
Earth’s magnetic field is a sensitive particle detector, considerably more sensitive than any human-made detector. Thus, it may react to phenomena undetected by current devices.
