How Tropical Storm Philippe could affect the weekend weather in the Northeast. Tropical Cyclone Philippe is expected to bring a dreary weekend to the Northeast, along with a slug of tropical moisture that will increase the risk of flooding rainfall in a region repeatedly drenched in recent weeks.
The hurricane is located north of the Caribbean and far from the U.S. mainland. But its projected trajectory has echoes of Hurricane Lee in September when the much-weakened system brought strong winds and rain to parts of the Northeast and Canada.
Philippe is expected to approach New England on Sunday as a tropical storm but may shed some low characteristics as it nears the coast. The intensity of rain and wind will be the same regardless of whether the storm makes landfall as a standard or post-tropical system.
The specific location of the heaviest rain will depend on Philippe’s track and a potent cold front moving across the central and eastern United States.
New England and eastern New York Portions are most susceptible to excessive rainfall and potential flooding. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 of 4 risk for extreme precipitation for Saturday in these regions.
However, the location of the heaviest precipitation could relocate if a low-pressure system moving across the eastern United States pulls Philippe closer to the Northeast. This potential adjustment could bring the threat closer to the mid-Atlantic, a region where another deluge would be especially concerning.
Where precipitation is likely this week
The total quantity of rain and other precipitation expected over the next week. Last week, parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast were inundated by unprecedented rainfall. Floodwaters inundated subways, roadways, and basements in the New York City tri-state area, where several locations recorded the wettest day in recorded history.
A widespread 1 to 2 inches of precipitation is possible across New York and New England, although it is not forecast to be as intense as last week. Where the heaviest rain develops, presumably in Maine, rainfall totals could approach 2 to 4 inches.
As Philippe approaches landfall, torrential rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of New England and Atlantic Canada on Saturday and Saturday night. The winds of Philippe are expected to persist at tropical storm force, but the cyclone will not be fully tropical when it makes landfall.
Bermuda is vulnerable to tropical storms.
Philippe has quite a distance to travel before approaching the US and Canada, but it will shortly come in close contact with Bermuda. As Philippe approached, the island’s meteorological service issued a tropical storm warning Wednesday evening.
Bermuda’s width is only 15 miles, so landfalls are uncommon. NOAA data indicates that only eleven systems have landed on the island since 1851. However, Philippe will not need to make landfall to deliver strong winds and significant precipitation.
Wednesday, the Bermuda Weather Service issued a tropical storm caution for the island, as Philippe does not need to make landfall to bring strong winds and heavy rain.
On Friday, when Philippe makes its closest approach to Bermuda, tropical storm-force winds are probable. Thursday will bring rain before any wind.
As Philippe approaches the island, it is anticipated to be a tropical storm, so the risk of widespread damage is low, but power outages are possible.